I’m the Sports Editor for a sports news and gambling website. I’ve many years connection with gambling, sports journalism and study of mathematics. Am I a gambling expert? Well, I suppose you can say that.
There are innumerable so-called gambling experts ready to dish out information of these systems to’beat the bookie’or to make a second income from gambling, for a price of course. I won’t do that. I will just give you information about bookmakers, odds and gambling for you really to use (or forget) as you see fit.
First thing to say is that a large proportion of men and women who take part in gambling is likely to be net losers over time https://foxz24.bet/foxz24/. This is the very reason you can find so many bookmakers making so much money through the world.
While bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, as an example in case a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they create markets that incorporate a margin, so they’ll always make a profit on the medium to longterm, or even the short term. That is, so long as they got their sums right.
When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first gauge the possibility of that event occurring. To do this they us various statistical models centered on data collated over years, sometime decades, about the game and team/competitor in question. Of course, if sport was 100% predictable, it would soon lose its appeal, and while the bookies in many cases are spot up with their assessments of the possibility of an event, they are sometimes way off the mark, mainly because a fit or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Just look at any sport and you will discover an occasion once the underdog triumphs against most of the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, as an example, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two types of when you would have got handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a significant wedge.
The big bookmakers spend plenty of time and money ensuring they’ve the best odds that ensure they consider the perceived possibility of the big event, and then add that extra tiny bit that provides them the profit margin. So if an event features a possibility of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability will be 2/1. That is, two to one against that event occurring.
However, a bookie who set these odds would, over time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they’d set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this manner they’ve integrated the margin that ensures, over time, they’ll make money from people betting on this selection. It is the same concept as a casino roulette.
So how could you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Well, it’s easier said than done, but not even close to impossible.
One of the ways is to have very good at mathematical modelling and create a design that takes under consideration as most of the variables that affect the results of an event as possible. The situation with this particular tactic is that however complex the model, and however all-encompassing it seems, it can never take into account the minutiae of variables relating to individual human states of mind. Whether a golfer manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it’s as much down to their concentration regarding the weather or day of the week. Also, the maths will start getting pretty darn complicated.
Alternatively you will find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events that make them probably the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match is likely to be tough. If you don’t benefit one of the clubs, or are married to one of the players or managers, it’s very possible the bookmaker setting the odds can have additional information than you.
However, if you’re betting on non-league football, or badminton, or crown green bowls, it’s possible, through hard work reading a lot of stats, and general information gathering, you can start to gain an advantage over bookies (if they even set odds for such things, which many do).
And what do you do when you yourself have an advantage in information terms? You follow the value.
Value betting is where you back a selection at odds which can be more than the specific possibility of an event occurring. So as an example, in the event that you gauge the possibility of a particular non-league football team (Grimsby Town, say) winning their next football match as 1/3 or 33%, and you find a bookmaker who has set the odds of 3/1, you have a value bet on your own hands. The main reason being, odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin integrated by the bookie) suggest a possibility of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has underrated Grimsby’s chances, so you have effectively integrated an 8% margin for yourself.
Of course Grimsby (as is usually the case) might fluff their lines and don’t win the match, and hence you can lose the bet. But if you continue to seek out and bet on value bets, over time you will make a profit. If you don’t, over time, you’ll lose. Simple.